Heat Pump Market to Reach USD 150.3 Billion by 2035 — Expansion Accelerates in Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America

Heat Pump Market

Heat Pump Market Size and Share Forecast Outlook 2025 to 2035

MD, UNITED STATES, November 11, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ --

The global heat pump market is poised for transformative growth through 2035, propelled by building electrification, renewable energy integration, and fossil fuel phase-out policies. According to Future Market Insights (FMI), the market is valued at USD 56.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to surge to USD 150.3 billion by 2035, advancing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%.

The FMI report, “Heat Pump Market Size, Share, and Forecast 2025–2035,” reveals global revenues will increase by USD 93.4 billion over the decade, driven by demand for high-efficiency, low-carbon heating solutions in residential retrofits, commercial HVAC upgrades, and industrial process applications.

A Decade of Growth Anchored by Air-to-Air Systems and Natural Refrigerants:

The shift toward inverter-driven, natural refrigerant heat pumps is redefining climate control standards. From 2025 to 2030, the market will grow by USD 35.6 billion, fueled by air-source adoption and cold-climate advancements replacing traditional boilers.

From 2030 to 2035, FMI projects an additional USD 57.8 billion in expansion, driven by seamless integration with solar PV, smart grids, and district heating networks for comprehensive decarbonization.

“Natural refrigerants and smart controls are no longer premium features—they’re essential for regulatory compliance and operational savings,” said an FMI research analyst. “Efficiency ratios of 300-400% are enabling 50-70% cost reductions versus fossil fuels.”

Heat Pump Key Market Insights at a Glance:

Metric- Global Estimate

Market Value (2025)- USD 56.9 billion

Forecast Value (2035)- USD 150.3 billion

CAGR- 10.2%

Leading Product- Air-Air Heat Pump (44.3% share)

Primary End User- Residential Segment (54.0% share)

Fastest-Growing Region- Japan (11.2% CAGR)

India: An Emerging Heat Pump Powerhouse:

FMI’s analysis highlights India’s accelerating trajectory, with the market growing at 8.3% CAGR through 2035. Urbanization, commercial building electrification, and industrial process heat demand in metros like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore are key drivers. Air-to-air systems dominate, supported by rising air quality standards and reversible AC-to-heat-pump conversions.

Heat Pump Five Forces Driving Market Expansion:

Building Decarbonization Mandates: Policies phasing out gas boilers create direct replacement demand for zero-combustion heating.

Energy Efficiency Modernization: 300-400% seasonal performance factors deliver 50-70% savings over oil/propane systems.

Renewable Energy Integration: Heat pumps optimize solar self-consumption and enable grid demand flexibility.

Cold-Climate Innovation: Vapor injection and defrost advancements extend viability to -25°C to -30°C environments.

Natural Refrigerant Shift: R290 propane and CO₂ systems address F-Gas regulations, capturing 18% share and growing rapidly.

Heat Pump Market Segment Overview:

By Product Type: Air-air heat pumps lead with 44.3% share via ductless mini-splits and multi-zone versatility; air-water follows at 32.1% for hydronic compatibility.

By Refrigerant: HFC remains dominant, but natural refrigerants (propane/CO₂) are the fastest-growing category.

By End User: Residential holds 54.0% share, driven by retrofit incentives and new construction mandates; commercial (34.0%) and industrial (12.0%) focus on scalability.

By Power Level: Small (<10 kW) units prevail in homes; medium (10-100 kW) targets commercial retrofits.

Heat Pump Market Regional Overview:

Asia Pacific: Leads global growth with Japan (11.2% CAGR) and China (10.7% CAGR) via manufacturing scale and urban retrofits.

Europe: From USD 12.8 billion in 2025 to USD 43.4 billion by 2035 (13.1% CAGR); Germany (24.0% share) drives via BEG subsidies.

North America: Steady at 8.9-9.6% CAGR; Canada advances cold-climate tech with rebates up to USD 7,000 per install.

Middle East & Africa: Infrastructure in UAE and Saudi Arabia boosts commercial adoption.

Full Market Report available for delivery. For purchase or customization, please request here: https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/checkout/480

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Heat Pump Market Competitive Landscape:

- Daikin Industries Ltd.

- Carrier Corporation

- Mitsubishi Electric Corporation

- Johnson Controls

- Trane Technologies

- Panasonic Corporation

- Bosch Thermotechnology

- NIBE Group

- Viessmann Group

- Rheem Manufacturing

Daikin, Carrier, and Mitsubishi command 28-32% share through inverter expertise and global footprints. Focus shifts to R290 systems, IoT platforms, and -30°C performance for premium differentiation.

Heat Pump Market Outlook: Electrifying the Future of Heating:

Over the next decade, heat pumps will transition from alternatives to default solutions in net-zero buildings. AI-driven energy management, predictive defrost, and grid-responsive operation will optimize total ownership costs.

“As electrification aligns with renewable surpluses, heat pumps become flexibility assets,” the FMI analyst noted. “Manufacturers mastering refrigerant safety, cold-climate reliability, and digital ecosystems will lead the USD 150 billion market.”

Explore More Related Studies Published by FMI Research:

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About Future Market Insights (FMI)

Future Market Insights, Inc. (FMI) is an ESOMAR-certified, ISO 9001:2015 market research and consulting organization, trusted by Fortune 500 clients and global enterprises. With operations in the U.S., UK, India, and Dubai, FMI provides data-backed insights and strategic intelligence across 30+ industries and 1200 markets worldwide.

Why FMI: Decisions that Change Outcomes- https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/why-fmi

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