VLSFO market seen reaching $140.14B by 2030 as shipping rules tighten

The Business Research Company says the very low sulphur fuel oil market is set for steady growth as maritime trade expands and emissions rules tighten worldwide. The market is projected to rise from $100.32 billion in 2025 to $140.14 billion by 2030, with Asia-Pacific holding the largest share in 2025.

Why it matters: - Very low sulphur fuel oil is a key compliance fuel for shipping operators facing stricter sulphur-emissions rules. - Demand for cleaner marine fuels is rising as global maritime trade expands and environmental pressure on shipping intensifies. - The market’s growth points to continued spending on fuel compliance, refinery upgrades, and marine fuel supply infrastructure.

What happened: - The Business Research Company released its Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil Global Market Report 2026 – Market Size, Trends, And Forecast 2026-2035 on June 26, 2026. - The report estimates the VLSFO market at $100.32 billion in 2025 and $107.07 billion in 2026. - The report projects the market will reach $140.14 billion by 2030. - The report covers major regions including Asia-Pacific, South East Asia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East and Africa. - The company also offered a free sample of the report and a full report.

The details: - VLSFO contains a maximum of 0.50% sulphur by mass. - The fuel is used to reduce sulphur oxides, or SOx, during combustion. - The report cites International Maritime Organization sulphur-cap enforcement, marine pollution concerns, limits on high-sulphur fuel use, growing global shipping trade volumes and early emission control areas as 2026 growth drivers. - The report forecasts a 6.7% CAGR from 2025 to 2026. - The report forecasts a 7.0% CAGR through 2030. - The report says tighter global decarbonization rules, green shipping corridors, higher use of alternative marine fuels and a push for better fuel efficiency will support longer-term growth. - The report also points to low-sulphur blended fuels, refinery hydrocracking, bunker fuel supply chain improvements and digital fuel monitoring systems as shaping the market. - Asia-Pacific held the largest market share in 2025. - The Middle East is expected to post the fastest growth during the forecast period.

Between the lines: - The forecast suggests shipping compliance spending is becoming a durable market, not a short-term regulatory spike. - Maritime trade growth is doing double duty here: it is lifting fuel demand while also increasing pressure to use cleaner bunker fuel. - The focus on digital monitoring and supply-chain upgrades shows the market is moving beyond fuel content alone toward broader operational control. - In October 2024, UN Conference on Trade and Development data showed global maritime trade rose 2.4% to 12.3 billion tons in 2023, with similar growth expected through 2029.

What's next: - The market’s near-term trajectory will hinge on how quickly shipowners adapt to decarbonization rules and expand use of compliant fuels. - Refiners and bunker suppliers are likely to keep investing in blending, processing and monitoring capabilities as demand grows. - Regional growth may continue to center on Asia-Pacific, while the Middle East narrows the gap at a faster pace.