AGP Executive Report

Energy and Inflation: Brent crude climbed to about $106 a barrel as Middle East tensions and doubts over a Russia-Ukraine energy truce raised supply concerns, adding pressure to inflation and interest-rate expectations. Global Growth: The IMF says AI investment is helping keep global growth near 3%, while the World Bank raised China’s 2026 forecast to 4.5%, citing high-tech exports. Markets: S&P 500 futures held near record highs ahead of major U.S. bank earnings, but rising bond yields remain a concern for investors. Technology Demand: Global PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year in the third quarter to 62.7 million units, with higher component costs and data-center demand weighing on supply. Regional Outlook: Armenia is forecast to grow 5.8% this year, while Pakistan expects growth above 4% despite elevated oil prices. Cambodia’s trade with ASEAN and the EU rose 16% and 14%, respectively, in the first nine months.

China’s Investment Shift: Beijing is prioritizing more efficient, high-quality investment as fixed-asset spending fell 7.2% in the first eight months and private investment dropped 10.1%. High-tech manufacturing is a bright spot: investment in chipmaking rose 11.5%. Nigeria’s Capital Markets: NGX is targeting N300 trillion in market value by attracting new listings, including state-linked energy and technology companies. OPay has proposed a New York listing followed by a possible Nigerian listing, giving local investors a potential route into the fintech’s growth. Trade and AI: Sub-Saharan African trade value climbed 11% in the first five months of 2026. Globally, goods trade grew at its fastest pace in 15 years outside the pandemic rebound, with AI infrastructure demand accounting for 76% of goods-trade growth in the first quarter. Markets: Wall Street’s major indexes advanced as technology shares rebounded, easing concerns about AI-sector growth prospects.

Growth Outlook: Asian economies remain central to the global outlook: a new report projects Asia-Pacific GDP could reach $140 trillion by 2050, while international institutions have lifted India’s growth forecasts to around 7%. India Markets: The Sensex and Nifty ended an eight-week losing streak, led by IT stocks, but foreign investors are still selling heavily; a busy IPO pipeline shows demand for new listings remains strong. Food Prices: Global food prices hit their highest level since late 2022 in September, with shipping disruptions and weather shocks raising risks for import-dependent countries. Agriculture: Global milk supply is forecast to rise 2.2% in 2026, though drought effects and El Niño remain uncertain. Oman Investment: A $120 billion construction pipeline through 2030 points to opportunities across infrastructure, tourism and industry.

U.S. Fiscal Outlook: The CBO chief says faster growth alone is unlikely to steady federal debt, now at $40 trillion, as higher interest costs and spending can offset added revenue. EV Market: Malaysia registered 6,029 electric vehicles in September, down 31.7% from August’s record but up 70.7% year over year. Proton captured half of sales, with its e.MAS 5 taking 41%. Growth & Trade: The IMF may raise its South Korea growth forecast from 2.6%, though youth employment remains weak. Bangladesh’s garment exports rose 6.1% to $10.58 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026–27, led by gains in the U.S. and non-traditional markets. Corporate Outlook: Delta cut its 2026 profit forecast as fuel costs pressure airlines, while Netflix is reportedly preparing workforce cuts amid slowing growth.

Malaysia Outlook: MBSB Investment Bank expects Budget 2027 to support growth while narrowing the fiscal deficit to 3.3% of GDP; it forecasts 4.6% economic growth next year. Rates and Equities: Rising yields and oil prices are testing markets beneath the AI-led rally. US 10-year Treasury yields neared 5.4%, while fewer than a third of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 50-day average. Global Growth: UNCTAD sees world growth slowing to 2.6% in 2026 amid an energy shock, while Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September. Regional Markets: Oman’s MSX 30 rose 3.08% for the week, supported by domestic fundamentals. In India, NSE cash-market trading volumes fell to a six-month low as foreign investors sold shares and higher US yields drew funds away. Trade and Industry: Azerbaijan plans to export most output from its new fertilizer plant, whose annual capacity is four times domestic demand.

Labour Market: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, with young workers taking the biggest hit. The setback could influence rate expectations, but mortgage costs will also depend on bond yields and inflation. Global Outlook: UNCTAD sees world growth slowing to 2.6% in 2026 amid the Middle East crisis, while trade growth eases to 4%. India stands out, with growth forecast at 7.3%, making it the fastest-growing large economy. Stocks: U.S. markets ended the week higher, but a narrowing rally leaves many shares well below their peaks. Analysts see potential value in companies whose earnings are improving faster than their share prices. Bonds: Rising yields are adding pressure to borrowers and raising fiscal concerns, including in France, while Canada’s mortgage market is already responding to bond-market moves.

Capital Markets: Malaysia’s 2026–30 plan targets a market worth RM5.8 trillion to RM6.3 trillion, with new funding and listing support intended to help local firms expand. Bonds & AI: US Treasury yields are near multi-decade highs, and UNCTAD warns an AI valuation correction could spread through markets and trigger margin calls. Trade Outlook: The WTO has raised its 2026 global trade growth forecast, citing AI-driven demand in Asia. Energy & Airlines: Delta cut its annual profit forecast as higher fuel prices add an estimated $6 billion to costs, testing how much more passengers will pay. Industry Growth: India’s telecom equipment market is projected to double to $50 billion by FY32, though operator revenue growth is forecast at just 2.7% annually. Auto Expansion: Geely is preparing to enter Canada, with its first vehicles expected in 2027.

Global Trade: The WTO more than doubled its 2026 goods-trade growth forecast to 3.9%, from 1.9%, citing an accelerating AI investment boom; it expects 4.1% growth in 2027. AI-related products drove 47% of trade growth in the first half, with gains concentrated in Asia. Markets: US stocks fell as technology shares came under pressure after reports put OpenAI’s annual revenue pace below earlier estimates and Samsung’s preliminary results missed expectations. OpenAI’s revenue gap reflects different accounting for cloud sales, not necessarily lost business. China: The PBOC reiterated that market supply and demand play a decisive role in setting the yuan, while saying it does not target a specific exchange-rate level. India: New GST process reforms aim to speed refunds and simplify registration, potentially easing working-capital pressure for businesses.

Markets: Higher oil prices pushed Wall Street lower, while Treasury yields hovered near their highest levels since 2002; PepsiCo also cut its outlook as North America’s recovery lagged. Technology: Global semiconductor sales have topped $1 trillion, four years ahead of earlier forecasts, and TSMC reported record third-quarter revenue. Economic Outlook: The World Bank expects Europe and Central Asia growth to slow to 2.2% in 2026, from 2.6% last year, citing energy costs and weaker trading partners. India: The apparel market is forecast to grow from $95.7 billion in 2025 to $146.3 billion by 2029, with rural areas already accounting for 58% of spending. Housing: Australia’s market is splitting: new listings fell 16% in Sydney and Melbourne but rose 17% in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

UK Jobs: Permanent placements rose for a second month in September, reaching a four-year high, but overall staff demand is still shrinking. KPMG called the recovery fragile, with higher borrowing costs and energy uncertainty clouding hiring. Market Moves: US stocks fell as bond yields swung and the curve steepened; oil retreated from recent highs, while a strong Treasury auction helped bonds recover. China Outlook: China’s domestic market and industrial upgrading may help steady global growth, an economist said. The OECD sees global growth slowing to 2.9% this year, while China grew 4.7% in the first half. Vietnam’s Markets: FTSE Russell’s emerging-market upgrade and new bond-raising powers could widen access to capital. The index provider estimates the change may eventually attract up to $6 billion, though sustained inflows will depend on liquidity, transparency and risk management.

India Rates: The RBI raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, pressuring stocks, while lifting its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on business investment and lending. Global Outlook: The World Bank sees Latin America and the Caribbean growing 2.2% in 2026, while the IMF chief warned that energy shocks, rising debt and AI-related risks threaten global growth. Markets & Jobs: US stocks reached fresh records as Treasury yields eased, even as September job creation slowed to 29,000—adding to concerns about the labor market and the economy’s direction. Growth Bets: India’s quick-commerce market is forecast to reach $90 billion by FY31, and data-center power demand is projected to grow 24% annually through 2030, underscoring continued investment in digital infrastructure.

World Bank / Macro Forecasts: Nepal’s growth is projected to slow to 3.7% in FY2026/27 after the Aug. 26 Rasuwa flood hit industry and services, with a rebound to 5.2% in FY2027/28 tied to reconstruction—though hydropower, solar, transmission and transport damage is expected to keep industry as the main drag. Markets / Risk Sentiment: Despite record highs, Michael Burry warned the stock market is in the “first stage” of a 2008-style crash, arguing that stage can last 6–9 months. US Equities / Rates: Newsquawk reported the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records as yields eased, while Europe also firmed on a positive bias ahead of the US open. AI & Semiconductors / Earnings Watch: Coverage compared Applied Materials vs Nvidia on revenue momentum, while multiple notes pointed to AI-driven demand supporting power and industrial tech. Energy & Commodities: Gold held firm with forecasts from LBMA delegates pointing to higher prices over the next year, as markets weigh yields, the dollar, and geopolitical risk. Retail / Consumer Demand: In Mexico, Medicube opened a permanent store at Palacio de Hierro, signaling continued premium beauty expansion. Tech Adoption / Infrastructure: A Vermont EV and charging snapshot showed EV share lagging the national average and a thinner charging port ratio, highlighting uneven rollout.

AI in Life Sciences: Drug discovery informatics is forecast to surge, with AI agents needing better biological context as the market for AI in drug discovery and related software expands toward 2030. Semiconductors & Connectivity: Multiple forecasts point to continued buildout in MOS logic, mobile networks, mobile search, WLAN, and mobile IP messaging—signaling steady demand for faster, more connected devices. Payments & Mobile Finance: Mobile finance and payments are projected to keep compounding fast, supported by smartphone adoption and cashless infrastructure. Market Education & Wealth Building: India’s ANMI pushes early participation and investor education, warning retail traders about algorithmic disadvantages and scam risks. Iran Drug Shortages: Iran’s medicine shortages are driving patients into a black market where prices can jump more than tenfold, with counterfeit risks rising. Corporate Growth Spotlight: Canada’s Clark Influence earns a top-growing-company spot again on revenue momentum. Consumer & Brand Signals: Citi’s bullish stance on Harley-Davidson highlights a turnaround narrative as dealership confidence improves. Labor Market Reality Check: New research finds generative AI hasn’t moved earnings or hours yet, even as work processes are already being reorganized.

Battery Recycling Policy Shift (Australia): NSW’s new mandatory battery product stewardship scheme (effective Oct 1) pushes collection and recycling costs onto brand owners, setting up higher battery collection volumes and boosting players like Livium via its Envirostream recycling unit. Retail Growth Playbook (China): Walmart’s China chief Christina Zhu says Sam’s Club is winning by meeting more demanding shoppers, with China sales up 19.3% and last-quarter growth outpacing the wider company. Bond Market Warning (Global): “Bond King” Bill Gross warns high yields can squeeze stock valuations and margins, as investors reprice debt risk. Inflation vs Growth (South Korea): Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il pledges action to tame inflation and protect essentials, while expanding public housing and support for vulnerable households. Prediction Markets Under Legal Pressure (US): State regulators urge the US Supreme Court to revisit Kalshi’s sports-contract authority, keeping the prediction-market regulatory fight in focus. Auto Demand Turns Electrified (UK): Britain’s September new-car registrations rose 12% YoY to the strongest September since 2017, led by electrified vehicles hitting record shares. Crypto Rules vs Reality (East Asia): Chainalysis finds China’s stablecoin wallet activity surged 43x despite trading bans, highlighting enforcement gaps across the region. Housing & Rates Pressure (Australia): Australia’s housing downturn deepens as prices fall for six straight months, with rate hikes flagged as the key driver.

ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook: AMRO lifted its 2027 growth forecast for ASEAN+3 to 4.1% (2026 kept at 4.1%), citing stronger AI-linked exports and investment, while warning energy/logistics costs and risks like West Asia disruptions, El Niño, market volatility, and protectionism could still bite. Malaysia Macro Upgrade: AMRO also raised Malaysia’s growth to 5.1% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027, with inflation seen steady at 2.0% (2026) and 2.2% (2027), tied to AI export momentum. US Services Pulse: S&P Global pointed to a sharp rebound in US business growth in September, with services expansion and optimism supporting stronger near-term momentum even as pricing pressures remain a concern. AI Hardware Demand: Foxconn Q3 revenue jumped 47% y/y on AI server demand, reinforcing the AI capex-to-manufacturing pipeline. Japan Chips to India: Japanese chip-linked firms are stepping up in India, betting on Modi’s semiconductor push despite supplier and skills gaps. Energy Risk for Households: UK analysts say the energy price cap could jump again in January; Cornwall Insight flags 39 fixed deals beating the predicted cap, pushing consumers to lock in now. Investor Protection: India’s SEBI chief warned against finfluencers, anonymous tips, and unrealistic returns as retail participation grows. Capital Markets & Growth Deals: Entrex hired Enclave Capital to support financing and planned distributed data-center acquisitions.

Cyprus Sustainable Debt: The Central Bank of Cyprus says sustainable securities are rising but still concentrated, with residents holding €3.40bn in sustainable debt at end-March 2026 and green debt the biggest slice. Global Rates Jitters: A bond-market selloff is being blamed on “buyers’ strikes” and inflation fears, but one analysis argues the usual stories don’t fully explain why yields jumped. South Africa Housing Shift: Q2 2026 residential transactions fell about 8% y/y as rates stayed high, yet Gauteng is emerging as a brighter spot. India Debt Meets Leverage: Bloomberg reports brokers’ commercial paper issuance surged to ~21% of CP so far this year (about Rs3.2tn) as margin trading demand spills into short-term funding. Nigeria Market Pullback: NGX shares slid last week, with market cap down N812bn amid profit-taking and weaker turnover. AI Chip Earnings Shock: Broadcom’s AI revenue surged 221% to $16.7bn, while Intel’s results were steadier—investors will watch if the gap keeps widening. EV Demand in Australia: BYD is rapidly gaining share as EVs hit 25.8% of car sales in H1 2026, driven by fuel-price uncertainty. Market Outlook (India): Nifty extended its slide, closing below the 200-week moving average, while traders look to RBI policy and earnings for direction. Insurance & Risk Pricing: AM Best flags surplus lines as a competitive, capital-rich market where margins are pressured but capacity keeps expanding.