AGP Executive Report

Hybrid & Clean-Tech Forecasts: Persistence Market Research projects the global mild hybrid vehicles market to rise from US$113.0B (2026) to US$176.9B by 2033, helped by 48V adoption and tighter CO₂ rules. Clean-Label Ingredients: Natural lecithin is forecast to grow from US$780.1M (2026) to US$1,389.9M by 2033 as food, pharma and cosmetics shift toward naturally derived inputs. Real Estate (NZ): New Zealand rents are flat nationally at about $620, but the story splits by region, with stronger South Island rent gains (Otago, Nelson/Tasman, Canterbury) while Auckland/Wellington drift lower. Corporate Deals (Philippines/India): Wipro Consumer Care International plans to buy S Brands Consumer Care to deepen its Philippines personal-care footprint, targeting completion by August. Auto Demand (Malaysia): Malaysia’s TIV forecast is revised up to 800,000 units for 2026 on stronger demand, with xEV growth supporting momentum. Construction Offsite Trend (China): CSCEC says modular construction demand overseas is surging, citing nearly 20,000 factory-made modules shipped since the year before last. Healthcare Updates: Novartis returned to sales growth in Q2; Qatar Islamic bank QIIB reported H1 net profit of QR713m (+3.5%). Policy & Growth (Japan): Japan’s Takaichi administration drops “fiscal consolidation” language and plans an investment-focused budget framework starting fiscal 2027. AI/Markets (China): UBS remains upbeat on China tech/AI stocks after a pullback, arguing crowded positioning has eased. Rates (Liberia): Liberia’s central bank cut its policy rate 25 bps to 16% to support credit as inflation stays moderate. EV Infrastructure (Tanzania): Tanzania issued charging and battery-swapping guidelines, aiming to unlock investment and standardize safety.

Earnings & AI Momentum: Paytm posted record Q1 FY27 results, with revenue up 28% YoY to Rs 2,448 crore, EBITDA up 182% to Rs 203 crore, and profit up 79%, citing AI-led operating leverage and faster merchant GMV growth. Tech-Led Markets: US stocks rose as the Nasdaq outperformed ahead of Alphabet and Tesla earnings, with Taiwan export orders jumping and TSMC signaling up to 10% higher chip prices in 2027; oil also firmed on renewed US-Iran and shipping-risk headlines. China Confidence Push: Beijing’s stock-market intervention boosted sentiment, especially in tech and semiconductors, as regulators pledged a more transparent market order. Aviation Outlook: Boeing forecast a USD 4.9tn global aviation services market by 2045, with fleet growth and massive hiring needs for pilots, maintenance and cabin crew. Energy Risk Premium: Oil is climbing again as geopolitical tensions threaten shipping and supply routes, keeping markets focused on higher-for-longer energy pricing. Crypto & Prediction Markets: A Washington judge halted Kalshi’s sports prediction market over state gambling-law concerns, while Bitcoin spot trading stayed sluggish but derivatives activity improved. Housing & Rentals: Hong Kong student rentals are tightening as mainland students start hunting earlier, while parts of New Zealand and the UK show mixed rental/home-value signals. Commodities Watch: Cotton prices rallied on Texas conditions turning mixed, and wheat/soft wheat selection remains in focus as growers weigh yield versus disease resistance and market flexibility.

Japan Economic Blueprint: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet approved a long-term growth and fiscal plan through fiscal 2040, shifting from “fiscal consolidation” toward investment-led productivity with a target of 1%+ real growth (inflation near 2%). Indonesia Development & Nature: Bappenas says biodiversity is central to Indonesia’s long-term growth, pushing a move from raw extraction to sustainable downstream value. Malaysia Auto Demand: Malaysia’s TIV forecast for 2026 was lifted to 800,000 units as SUV and xEV sales stay strong, with commercial-vehicle share expected to soften. U.S. Aviation Regulation: The FAA says it’s working to help deploy air taxis, supersonic aircraft, and drones by updating certification and keeping rules less prescriptive. Crypto & Markets: Nubank’s U.S. banking push highlights how hard it is for digital banks to crack America, while South Korea’s KOSPI volatility is increasingly tied to the global AI trade. Real Estate Split: New Zealand rents are flat nationally, but the South is diverging—Otago, Nelson/Tasman, and Canterbury are rising while Auckland and Wellington drift down. Corporate Dealmaking: Wipro Consumer Care International agreed to buy S Brands in the Philippines to deepen its personal-care footprint. Market Outlook Themes: Multiple sectors keep pitching growth forecasts—from embedded security and routers to engineered wood and used construction equipment—reflecting continued capex and digitization momentum.

Prediction-Market Crackdown: France orders ISPs to block Polymarket, escalating Europe’s push to treat crypto event trading like regulated gambling. US-Iran Energy Shock: Brent jumps to a one-month high as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions stoke oil-driven volatility and inflation fears. China Market Stabilization: Regulators hold a market-stability meeting as a “national team” deploys about 60 billion yuan via buyback re-lending to steady A-shares. Aviation Orders Watch: ATR flags temporary demand softness tied to Iran-war uncertainty but keeps its 2026 firm-order target. Retail Growth Under Deadline: Hemp-derived THC drinks face a Nov. 12, 2026 federal rule that could push many products out of the legal hemp category. Industrial Automation Demand: Precision gearbox and related automation spending forecasts stay strong, with robotics and advanced manufacturing cited as key drivers. Qatar Banking Update: QIIB reports H1 2026 net profit of QR713m (+3.5%) on higher financing assets and deposits. Logistics Reform in SA: Ports and rail upgrades with private participation aim to cut congestion and boost export throughput. Local Housing Push: Rental Housing Saskatchewan backs rural development in Moosomin as workforce rental demand rises. Data Center Supply Chain: Morton Industries expands in East Peoria to serve the growing data center market.

Philippines Equities Outlook: COL Financial keeps its PSEi year-end target at 7,500, arguing cooling crude and possible capital-market catalysts can lift valuations back toward the pre-Iran-conflict zone. Plant-Based Food Demand: The global soy milk market is forecast to rise from $7.3B (2026) to $13.2B by 2033 as lactose-free and vegan diets keep expanding. South Africa Export Push: dtic will host an Essential Oils Conference in Pretoria to help producers improve quality, standards, and export readiness. AI Spending Forecast: Gartner expects global end-user AI platform and model spending to hit $64B in 2026, with generative AI the fastest-growing line. China Macro Signal: Shanghai’s economy grew 5.6% in H1, led by industrial upgrading and high-value services. Canada Construction Labor Watch: BuildForce Canada flags diverging outlooks across provinces—Nova Scotia and Newfoundland show non-residential strength, while PEI and New Brunswick face residential moderation and workforce pressure. EU Reform Reality Check: The Western Balkans Growth Plan is uneven in implementation, with some countries on track and others lagging as payments hinge on milestones. Crypto Liquidity Note: Solana stablecoin supply is diversifying, reaching $4.81B in alternative stablecoins as DeFi and RWA activity draws liquidity. Aviation Supply Chain: Boeing forecasts the global freighter fleet to grow to about 4,010 by 2045, supported by widebody demand despite program delays.

AI & Automation in China: Global brands are leaning harder on AI and robots to stay competitive in cost-conscious China, from L’Oréal’s smart factories and mobile robots to Swire’s AI shopping assistant. AI Jobs Demand: PwC says AI-skill postings jumped 8x faster than overall hiring in 2025, with pay premiums up to 62%, and growth is spreading beyond coders into healthcare and consumer-facing services. Energy Markets: The U.S. supplied about 93% of global LNG export growth in 2025, lifting its share to 25.4%, while the EU moves to slow ETS emissions-cap cuts, shifting costs and allowance timelines. Nuclear & Power Planning: Uranium is entering a structural bull phase on supply constraints and SMR “shadow demand,” and electricity markets are betting more on forecasting and market intelligence as AI/data centers reshape load. Aerospace Outlook: Boeing kept a steady 20-year demand forecast despite weaker air-travel growth, citing component and labor constraints. Housing Pressure: Home affordability keeps worsening, while an affordable builder is still starting a San Antonio project as construction volumes fall. Crypto & Prediction Markets: Altcoin-Bitcoin correlation is low (fragmentation, not a broad rally), and World Cup prediction markets are surging—Polymarket alone topped $4B in winner-market volume—while regulators step up scrutiny. Markets & Valuations: Analysts flag that earnings growth may be “priced in,” and Nvidia’s AI build-out narrative is fueling bullish $20T valuation chatter. World Cup Finance: Spain and Argentina’s final caps a tournament with a $51M winner payout and record prediction-market trading.

Tourism Momentum: Georgia is leaning into its “Europe-Asia crossroads” advantage, with 7.8M international visitors in 2025 and $4.7B in tourism revenue, as the GNTA points to better connectivity, infrastructure and year-round product depth. Banking Model Debate: Cyprus is revisiting co-operative banking after the sector’s past collapse, while Europe-wide co-ops still hold ~20% of the banking market and report strong capital buffers. Crypto Payments Reality Check: Visa and Mastercard’s direct work with crypto firms is framed as a long-running shift toward mainstream payments, with stablecoins and card rails now central. Prediction Market Scrutiny: Banks face rising compliance pressure as platforms expand beyond sports into elections and macro outcomes, drawing insider-risk concerns. India Growth Outlook: Deloitte expects India’s FY27 GDP growth at 6.5–6.8%, with strength in the second half despite West Asia-driven volatility. Corporate/Market Watch: CEAT targets strong double-digit FY27 growth and a Rs 1,205 crore capacity push, while Indian top-10 firm valuations rose by Rs 1.54 lakh crore last week. Middle East Trade & Logistics: Qatar’s logistics/free zones push is highlighted as a diversification pillar, with the sector valued above QR7.5bn. Public Health Risk: Australia’s smoking keeps falling, but illegal tobacco use is surging, threatening progress. World Cup Final (Market Angle): Spain vs Argentina betting markets price a tight, low-scoring matchup, with Spain favored around 58–59% in prediction markets.

AI Compute Deal: Meta is in early talks with Anthropic on a potential $10B, two-year GPU/compute arrangement, underscoring how AI demand is reshaping tech capex and market expectations. Markets & Rates: Despite a solid start to earnings, US indexes slid as investors weighed easing Fed-hike odds against lingering growth worries. Semiconductors: Chip ETFs faced pressure as AI-related sentiment cooled, with SOXX/SMH positioning debated by investors. Housing & Rates: A housing outlook piece flags mortgage-rate sensitivity near recent peaks, while another warns about the real cost of holding property in a faltering market. FX & Emerging Economies: Nigeria’s naira firmed as FX reforms and reserve gains improved confidence, while commentary points to reduced speculative FX turnover. Aviation Forecast: Boeing kept its 20-year aircraft demand outlook steady, projecting 43,625 deliveries and slower near-term passenger growth. Prediction Markets: Underdog launched a CFTC-licensed prediction exchange, as regulators and lawmakers intensify scrutiny of political betting and insider-leak allegations. Consumer Micro-Trends: Hong Kong’s post-ban pet boom is turning cats into a “feline silver economy,” while a US report shows CD sales outpacing vinyl in H1 2026.

US Consumer Demand: Bank of America says World Cup-driven spending lifted US card spending in June, with discretionary spend rising as gas prices fell. AI & Markets: Citadel Securities reports 9/10 market signals turned green, but flags earnings as the key remaining risk as chip stocks slide into a bear-market mood. Big Tech Rotation: Apple retakes the top spot as Nvidia slips on AI caution; Netflix shares plunge after missing growth targets and scaling back viewership reporting. Semiconductors Pressure: A selloff in chipmakers deepened after worries AI spending may be harder to justify, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index slipping into technical bear territory. Housing Tradeoff Debate: A Canada housing commentary argues policy can’t satisfy both falling prices for buyers and protecting retirement wealth for owners—supply fixes still imply tradeoffs. Property Micro-Trend: In Australia, PropTrack data shows unit prices outpacing houses, driven by affordability pressures. Regulation & Prediction Markets: France blocks Polymarket access, citing advertising and illegal betting concerns. Global Growth Themes: Boeing keeps its 20-year aircraft demand forecast steady despite slower passenger growth, while India’s private space push (Skyroot’s Vikram-1) highlights expanding launch capacity.

EU Climate Policy: The European Commission unveiled an electrification push and a major EU ETS overhaul, including a €100B Industrial Decarbonisation Bank and a plan to reinvest half of ETS revenues into decarbonising sectors. Prediction Markets Under Pressure: France moved to block Polymarket access for users, arguing the site’s availability amounts to advertising an unauthorised gambling service, while the US faces fresh scrutiny as a teleprompter operator is investigated over alleged insider trading tied to Kalshi. Tech & Markets Mood: Netflix slid after a forecast miss, adding to tech weakness as AI-related chip stocks wobble and investors weigh growth durability. Housing Signals: Cushman & Wakefield says US apartment demand is finally outpacing new supply, with vacancy falling below 9%, while Delaware’s housing market shows June sales up 8% year over year. Corporate Finance: PayPal’s growth profile remains underwhelming as takeover odds and earnings expectations stay in focus, and Pakistan’s finance ministry urged deeper corporate debt markets to cut reliance on banks. Crypto & Finance: Crypto.com hit a $20B valuation after Citadel’s $400M investment, and stablecoin growth continues to shift toward USD-linked tokens.

Global Growth Outlook: Moody’s Analytics says India stays the fastest-growing major economy in 2026-27, with global growth at 2.5% (2026) and 2.8% (2027), while geopolitics, trade frictions, and stretched valuations keep downside risks elevated. Mideast Risk & Markets: The US and Iran escalated attacks for a sixth straight night, lifting safe-haven demand and weighing on equities, with crude futures firmer on supply-flow concerns. AI Spending Backlash in Semis: Chip stocks slid again as investors punished capex-heavy AI optimism, with TSMC’s ADR drop highlighting how “spending plans” can matter more than earnings beats. Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny: A report flags concerns that wildfire betting could incentivize arson, while US regulators move toward tighter rules around prediction-market conduct. Vietnam IPO Watch: Dien May Xanh filed to list on HoSE, targeting a ~$3.9b market cap at IPO pricing, as Vietnam’s retail capital markets stay active. Tourism & Trade Boost: India’s tourism ministry launched an economic impact report arguing exhibitions drive trade, entrepreneurship, and investment, reinforcing the MICE push. Regional Infrastructure: Malaysia’s Johor expects RTS Link and cross-border zone upgrades to improve travel certainty and boost investment confidence. Sector Forecasts: New research points to growth across student accommodation, food traceability tech, in-vitro diagnostics, and military/aerospace fiber optics. Consumer & Housing Signals: Türkiye’s sunscreen demand is shifting year-round; Australia’s housing tax changes are warned to risk a major price correction. Corporate Moves: Volvo Cars cut its 2026 sales-growth target as China weakness hits earnings, while Delinea rolled out a partner program aimed at channel profitability.

AI-Driven Markets: Natixis strategists say AI will be the main driver of H2 2026 performance, but warn of lasting AI-fueled volatility and concentration risk. Tech Sell-Off & Earnings: Nasdaq slid as AI stocks dragged; Netflix shares fell after a forecast miss, while Micron plunged amid a memory-chip crunch. Semis Outlook: Goldman cut global PC shipment forecasts on higher memory/CPU costs, even as AI PCs are expected to keep growing. Gold & Rates: Gold weakened and Treasuries slipped in the same session; Fidelity’s Samson reiterated a plan to return to overweight gold in 2027. Energy & Commodities: IEA expects first oil demand decline since 2020; U.S. refiner margins hit record highs as Middle East tensions tighten fuel supply. Housing Signals: Georgia pending sales slowed while inventory rose, hinting at softer closings ahead. Corporate Deals: IPG Photonics agreed to buy Lumibird Medical to build a medical laser platform; ARRAY Technologies will acquire AWM to expand solar/BESS and datacenter-adjacent growth. Policy/Markets: Kalshi prediction-market trading scrutiny resurfaced after claims of inside knowledge.

Housing & Rates: New Zealand home prices show a mixed picture, with Wellington hitting a 3.8% monthly drop to $736,800 and Lloyd flagging a “window of opportunity” as supply improves, while Northland asking prices jump nearly 8% monthly. Energy Markets: The UK Consumer Council backs the CMA’s heating oil market review after conflict-driven spikes, noting wholesale prices drove 83% of the increase and a 24% rise in a week for 500 litres. India Services Growth: India’s trial Index of Services Production shows broad momentum—accommodation & food (+37.2% y/y) and retail (+30.8%) lead—while air transport lags (-13.9%) amid West Asia disruption. Aviation & Travel: IATA data shows US passenger growth slowed to 1.6% in 2025, even as premium travel rose 4.5% globally; meanwhile GE Aerospace lifts 2026 forecasts as airlines keep aftermarket maintenance spend. Markets & Risk: US-style leverage worries resurface as margin debt growth tops 40% in a year, while India’s Sensex/Nifty end flat amid Iran tensions. Digital Growth & Capital: Vietnam pushes for more capital-market funding (ETFs, transparency indices), and DAZN partners ADI Predictstreet to roll out regulated prediction markets, starting with the US. Business Expansion: Pakistan’s Big Bird Foods lands a major Gulf halal export contract, targeting a near doubling of export volumes.

Battery & Mining: Zimbabwe operationalised Africa’s first lithium sulphate plant (US$400m) in Goromonzi, shifting from raw exports to battery-chemical value addition and job creation. EV Infrastructure: Vermont’s EV share slipped to 4.76% of new light-duty sales in Q1 2026, while charging availability lagged at 14 EVs per public port. China Macro: China’s Q2 growth slowed to 4.3% (weakest since late 2022) as weak domestic demand met higher oil costs, even as exports surged on AI-linked semiconductors. AI & Markets: Singapore’s Q2 growth hit 5.7% as AI-driven semiconductor demand powered manufacturing; analysts split on durability. Corporate/Tech Sentiment: IBM shares plunged after a weak report, adding to debate over whether AI spending is overheating. Energy Demand: NextEra and Dominion filed to combine to meet rising US power demand across four fast-growing states. Agriculture Prices: UK/Europe dairy supply tightened on heatwaves, lifting spot milk, cream, butter and cheese; Irish sheep and beef markets firmed as supply constraints persist. Capital Markets Policy: Nepal’s SEBON plans a capital market task force and tighter loan rules against share collateral. Crypto/Finance: BlackRock reaffirmed a $500m crypto revenue goal despite a 40% drop in digital AUM amid market valuation declines. Property: King County valuations cooled, with Seattle office values pressured by vacancies.

AI Semiconductor Outlook: ASML lifted its 2026 sales forecast on strong AI-driven logic and memory demand, signaling continued momentum for the chip supply chain. Macro Risk Watch: “Dr. Doom” Nouriel Roubini warned inflation could re-accelerate toward 5–6%, pushing 10-year yields toward 8% and raising market stress. China Property Signals: China’s real estate expectations improved in 1H as prices stabilized in major cities and inventory eased, though the broader growth backdrop stayed fragile. Energy & Grid Constraints: Standard Chartered flagged a growing AI capex headwind as power-grid capacity can’t keep up, with New York’s AI data-center moratorium highlighting the bottleneck. EV Charging Reality Check: Vermont ranked low on EV adoption and public charging density, underscoring uneven infrastructure progress across the US. Regional Growth Funding: Fermanagh and Omagh councillors backed a £4.5m local economic plan aimed at productivity, jobs, and decarbonisation. Crypto Market Structure: OddsON launched a sports-only prop trading model built around sports prediction markets, while Binance doubled down on a payments “super app” strategy powered by stablecoins. Agriculture Trade Pressure: Tanzania’s exports to China face hurdles from weak packaging and standards, even as zero-tariff interest grows.

AI Infrastructure & Power Constraints: Morgan Stanley flags rising local opposition to data centers as a new bottleneck that could delay and reshape AI-related capex plans. China Trade Momentum: China’s exports jumped to a 27% YoY gain in June, led by semiconductors, autos, and ships, lifting hi-tech exports and first-half growth. US Housing Balance: Homes.com reports June signals a more balanced market: national median sale price up modestly, sales up, and listings rising—less buyer/seller dominance. EV Charging Reality Check: Vermont shows EV adoption slipping (4.76% of new sales in Q1 2026) while charging availability remains tight (14 EVs per public port). Corporate Earnings Shock: IBM’s preliminary 2Q results miss expectations, sending shares down sharply pre-market. Islamic Banking: Dubai Islamic Bank posts 10% gross revenue growth in H1, with financing growth and improving asset quality. Agri-Processing Jobs Push: Avio Smart Market Stack signs a Tripura MoU for a freeze-drying facility aimed at cutting post-harvest losses and creating hundreds of jobs. Sports Betting & Prediction Markets: LeBron’s next team draws over $112M in Kalshi trading volume, underscoring mainstream appetite for sports-linked prediction markets. Clean Energy Scale-Up: The clean energy market keeps expanding fast, with IEA projecting $3.4T total energy investment in 2026 and $2.2T for clean technologies. Skills for Growth: Pakistan doubles down on youth skills development to match a labor market reshaped by AI and digital innovation.