AGP Executive Report

Markets: Higher oil prices pushed Wall Street lower, while Treasury yields hovered near their highest levels since 2002; PepsiCo also cut its outlook as North America’s recovery lagged. Technology: Global semiconductor sales have topped $1 trillion, four years ahead of earlier forecasts, and TSMC reported record third-quarter revenue. Economic Outlook: The World Bank expects Europe and Central Asia growth to slow to 2.2% in 2026, from 2.6% last year, citing energy costs and weaker trading partners. India: The apparel market is forecast to grow from $95.7 billion in 2025 to $146.3 billion by 2029, with rural areas already accounting for 58% of spending. Housing: Australia’s market is splitting: new listings fell 16% in Sydney and Melbourne but rose 17% in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

UK Jobs: Permanent placements rose for a second month in September, reaching a four-year high, but overall staff demand is still shrinking. KPMG called the recovery fragile, with higher borrowing costs and energy uncertainty clouding hiring. Market Moves: US stocks fell as bond yields swung and the curve steepened; oil retreated from recent highs, while a strong Treasury auction helped bonds recover. China Outlook: China’s domestic market and industrial upgrading may help steady global growth, an economist said. The OECD sees global growth slowing to 2.9% this year, while China grew 4.7% in the first half. Vietnam’s Markets: FTSE Russell’s emerging-market upgrade and new bond-raising powers could widen access to capital. The index provider estimates the change may eventually attract up to $6 billion, though sustained inflows will depend on liquidity, transparency and risk management.

India Rates: The RBI raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, pressuring stocks, while lifting its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on business investment and lending. Global Outlook: The World Bank sees Latin America and the Caribbean growing 2.2% in 2026, while the IMF chief warned that energy shocks, rising debt and AI-related risks threaten global growth. Markets & Jobs: US stocks reached fresh records as Treasury yields eased, even as September job creation slowed to 29,000—adding to concerns about the labor market and the economy’s direction. Growth Bets: India’s quick-commerce market is forecast to reach $90 billion by FY31, and data-center power demand is projected to grow 24% annually through 2030, underscoring continued investment in digital infrastructure.

World Bank / Macro Forecasts: Nepal’s growth is projected to slow to 3.7% in FY2026/27 after the Aug. 26 Rasuwa flood hit industry and services, with a rebound to 5.2% in FY2027/28 tied to reconstruction—though hydropower, solar, transmission and transport damage is expected to keep industry as the main drag. Markets / Risk Sentiment: Despite record highs, Michael Burry warned the stock market is in the “first stage” of a 2008-style crash, arguing that stage can last 6–9 months. US Equities / Rates: Newsquawk reported the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records as yields eased, while Europe also firmed on a positive bias ahead of the US open. AI & Semiconductors / Earnings Watch: Coverage compared Applied Materials vs Nvidia on revenue momentum, while multiple notes pointed to AI-driven demand supporting power and industrial tech. Energy & Commodities: Gold held firm with forecasts from LBMA delegates pointing to higher prices over the next year, as markets weigh yields, the dollar, and geopolitical risk. Retail / Consumer Demand: In Mexico, Medicube opened a permanent store at Palacio de Hierro, signaling continued premium beauty expansion. Tech Adoption / Infrastructure: A Vermont EV and charging snapshot showed EV share lagging the national average and a thinner charging port ratio, highlighting uneven rollout.

AI in Life Sciences: Drug discovery informatics is forecast to surge, with AI agents needing better biological context as the market for AI in drug discovery and related software expands toward 2030. Semiconductors & Connectivity: Multiple forecasts point to continued buildout in MOS logic, mobile networks, mobile search, WLAN, and mobile IP messaging—signaling steady demand for faster, more connected devices. Payments & Mobile Finance: Mobile finance and payments are projected to keep compounding fast, supported by smartphone adoption and cashless infrastructure. Market Education & Wealth Building: India’s ANMI pushes early participation and investor education, warning retail traders about algorithmic disadvantages and scam risks. Iran Drug Shortages: Iran’s medicine shortages are driving patients into a black market where prices can jump more than tenfold, with counterfeit risks rising. Corporate Growth Spotlight: Canada’s Clark Influence earns a top-growing-company spot again on revenue momentum. Consumer & Brand Signals: Citi’s bullish stance on Harley-Davidson highlights a turnaround narrative as dealership confidence improves. Labor Market Reality Check: New research finds generative AI hasn’t moved earnings or hours yet, even as work processes are already being reorganized.

Battery Recycling Policy Shift (Australia): NSW’s new mandatory battery product stewardship scheme (effective Oct 1) pushes collection and recycling costs onto brand owners, setting up higher battery collection volumes and boosting players like Livium via its Envirostream recycling unit. Retail Growth Playbook (China): Walmart’s China chief Christina Zhu says Sam’s Club is winning by meeting more demanding shoppers, with China sales up 19.3% and last-quarter growth outpacing the wider company. Bond Market Warning (Global): “Bond King” Bill Gross warns high yields can squeeze stock valuations and margins, as investors reprice debt risk. Inflation vs Growth (South Korea): Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il pledges action to tame inflation and protect essentials, while expanding public housing and support for vulnerable households. Prediction Markets Under Legal Pressure (US): State regulators urge the US Supreme Court to revisit Kalshi’s sports-contract authority, keeping the prediction-market regulatory fight in focus. Auto Demand Turns Electrified (UK): Britain’s September new-car registrations rose 12% YoY to the strongest September since 2017, led by electrified vehicles hitting record shares. Crypto Rules vs Reality (East Asia): Chainalysis finds China’s stablecoin wallet activity surged 43x despite trading bans, highlighting enforcement gaps across the region. Housing & Rates Pressure (Australia): Australia’s housing downturn deepens as prices fall for six straight months, with rate hikes flagged as the key driver.

ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook: AMRO lifted its 2027 growth forecast for ASEAN+3 to 4.1% (2026 kept at 4.1%), citing stronger AI-linked exports and investment, while warning energy/logistics costs and risks like West Asia disruptions, El Niño, market volatility, and protectionism could still bite. Malaysia Macro Upgrade: AMRO also raised Malaysia’s growth to 5.1% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027, with inflation seen steady at 2.0% (2026) and 2.2% (2027), tied to AI export momentum. US Services Pulse: S&P Global pointed to a sharp rebound in US business growth in September, with services expansion and optimism supporting stronger near-term momentum even as pricing pressures remain a concern. AI Hardware Demand: Foxconn Q3 revenue jumped 47% y/y on AI server demand, reinforcing the AI capex-to-manufacturing pipeline. Japan Chips to India: Japanese chip-linked firms are stepping up in India, betting on Modi’s semiconductor push despite supplier and skills gaps. Energy Risk for Households: UK analysts say the energy price cap could jump again in January; Cornwall Insight flags 39 fixed deals beating the predicted cap, pushing consumers to lock in now. Investor Protection: India’s SEBI chief warned against finfluencers, anonymous tips, and unrealistic returns as retail participation grows. Capital Markets & Growth Deals: Entrex hired Enclave Capital to support financing and planned distributed data-center acquisitions.

Cyprus Sustainable Debt: The Central Bank of Cyprus says sustainable securities are rising but still concentrated, with residents holding €3.40bn in sustainable debt at end-March 2026 and green debt the biggest slice. Global Rates Jitters: A bond-market selloff is being blamed on “buyers’ strikes” and inflation fears, but one analysis argues the usual stories don’t fully explain why yields jumped. South Africa Housing Shift: Q2 2026 residential transactions fell about 8% y/y as rates stayed high, yet Gauteng is emerging as a brighter spot. India Debt Meets Leverage: Bloomberg reports brokers’ commercial paper issuance surged to ~21% of CP so far this year (about Rs3.2tn) as margin trading demand spills into short-term funding. Nigeria Market Pullback: NGX shares slid last week, with market cap down N812bn amid profit-taking and weaker turnover. AI Chip Earnings Shock: Broadcom’s AI revenue surged 221% to $16.7bn, while Intel’s results were steadier—investors will watch if the gap keeps widening. EV Demand in Australia: BYD is rapidly gaining share as EVs hit 25.8% of car sales in H1 2026, driven by fuel-price uncertainty. Market Outlook (India): Nifty extended its slide, closing below the 200-week moving average, while traders look to RBI policy and earnings for direction. Insurance & Risk Pricing: AM Best flags surplus lines as a competitive, capital-rich market where margins are pressured but capacity keeps expanding.

Labor Market Shift: The share of Americans aged 55+ in the workforce fell from 39.2% (Feb 2022) to 36.9% (July 2026), with analysts pointing to ageing, health issues, and “stock-fueled retirement” as equities rally. Gold Pullback: After record highs earlier this year, gold is down sharply (about 26% globally from January peak), with profit-taking and higher oil/inflation fears cited as key drivers; traders are watching whether Rs 2 lakh/10g targets fade toward lower support. Africa Investment Push: Egypt’s Sisi told global investors Africa is a manufacturing partner, not just a consumer market, as regional business forums seek deeper capital and trade links. Local Trade Pressure: Traders at Ibadan’s Gbagi-Ogunpa market asked Governor Makinde for better lighting and security, arguing infrastructure gaps are hurting commerce. India Markets Watch: Indian equities face a volatile week led by RBI’s rate decision, early earnings (TCS, DMart), crude oil above $100, and global bond-yield swings. Capital Markets Growth: NSE leaders say the next phase is deeper “financialisation” of household savings beyond just adding demat accounts. Corporate/Dividend Signals: McDonald’s raised its dividend while Domino’s held flat, putting investor focus on payout durability as Domino’s sales growth slows. Crypto Levels: BNB is eyeing the $800 area after September’s rebound; Solana needs a break above 124–125 to extend toward higher targets; Ethereum’s key resistance sits at $2,775–$2,800 for a potential $3,000 push; XRP forecasts center on $1.50–$1.70 trading into late October. AI/Data Center Theme: IT services outlook stays muted (AI deflation and longer deal cycles), while AI infrastructure beneficiaries like Comfort Systems USA highlight continued backlog strength.

US Rates & Jobs: Fed policymakers got fresh cover to pause after September payrolls slowed to 29,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.2%, with wage growth cooling—raising the odds of fewer hikes. US Debt Risk: A ratings agency warned U.S. debt is increasingly at the mercy of bond markets as interest costs surge, with yields already above official forecasts. AI Benchmarks Under Scrutiny: UC Berkeley research says AI agents can “game” popular tests via loopholes, pushing prediction markets to reprice confidence in AI leaders like Anthropic. Semis & AI Hardware: Qualcomm pitched on-device agentic AI at Snapdragon Summit, while investors also weighed ASML vs Qualcomm revenue momentum. Software Design Premium: Synopsys’ high valuation hinges on converting sticky chip-design workflows into cash growth, especially after its ANSYS deal. Tobacco Re-rating: Philip Morris’ smoke-free mix (Zyn and IQOS) keeps it priced like a growth stock, with the market betting the pivot can outpace shrinking cigarettes. Crypto Leverage Shock: Robinhood plans up to 10x leverage on BTC/ETH perpetuals as liquidations hit $478m, spotlighting renewed volatility risk. Emerging Market Signals: Malaysia’s trade growth is manufacturing-led (electronics leading), while South Korea’s pet food market surged but import share data remains unclear. Africa Growth Angle: Nigeria’s NGX market cap rose, led by large-cap blue chips, and MICE leaders urged Africa to treat business events as an investment engine. Copper Outlook: Supply constraints and data-center demand are cited as drivers that could push copper higher into 2028.

US Labor & Rates: September jobs growth slowed sharply to 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%, cooling rate-hike expectations and shifting the Fed outlook. Bond Market Watch: Rising Treasury yields are pushing up debt-service costs, with analysts pointing to higher real yields as a key driver. Energy & Geopolitics: Trump said the Iran conflict could end soon, potentially dragging oil prices lower. Crypto & Markets: Bitcoin surged toward $88,000 as Nvidia hit a $5.7T market cap milestone, while traders watched prediction-market activity. China Batteries: China dominates energy-storage lithium batteries, supplying ~95% of the global market as storage capacity expands fast. UK Auto Demand: Chinese brands took nearly 20% of UK registrations in September, led by BYD and Jaecoo. India Growth & Bonds: Economists say India is insulated from US yield moves due to mostly domestic bond ownership, but growth must stay inclusive. Food Safety: FDA found Cyclospora in environmental samples tied to a major Mexico iceberg lettuce outbreak. Corporate/Jobs: AstraZeneca is preparing layoffs in Spain despite recent expansion. Property Pressure (Australia): Queensland has only 180 suburbs under $500k left, with analysts warning cheap options could vanish in a few years. Agriculture Policy (India): Odisha launched a roadmap to scale specialty, nutrient-dense rice to boost farmer incomes.

US Labor Shock: Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%, easing pressure on the Fed but raising fresh questions about labor momentum. Markets & Rates: Bond yields cooled (10-year easing to ~5.20%), helping stocks rebound toward highs as oil slipped and the dollar softened. Tech & Positioning: Despite “neutral” tech positioning, investors are still heavily concentrated in mega-cap tech; Nvidia’s record results and buyback expansion keep AI leadership in focus. AI IPO Watch: Bloomberg says Anthropic wants to launch an IPO in mid-November, aiming to beat holiday market slowdowns. AI-Chip Trade: Cathie Wood’s ARK sold about $110M of AMD and bought ~$81.6M of Nvidia as Vera Rubin ramps and growth expectations stay bullish. Spain Housing: Spain’s housing decrees face political fracture after a high-profile eviction sparked protests, putting tenant protections at the center of coalition tensions. Mobile Money Battle: Airtel Money signals a fee-led push against M-Pesa as Kenya’s mobile money market matures. Space Manufacturing Outlook: Medium Earth Orbit satellite manufacturing is forecast to grow fast, with demand for navigation, comms and Earth observation driving an ~18% CAGR to 2030. Sector Forecasts: Packaged water treatment, online collaborative learning, online coding, and next-gen memory all show strong multi-year growth projections.

Auto Dispatches: India’s passenger vehicle dispatches rose ~21% YoY to 4.60 lakh units in September as carmakers ramped supply ahead of the festive season, led by Maruti (+37%) with Tata Motors, M&M and Hyundai also posting double-digit gains. UK Manufacturing: The UK Manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion (51.9) but output growth slowed as higher energy, transport and input costs weighed on parts of the sector. Telecom Expansion: Nigeria’s NCC granted Swift Telephone Network (STN) a Unified Access Service Licence, enabling voice, data and broader telecom services as the firm targets digital-divide bridging. Housing Watch (Singapore): Private-home prices held up (up 1.4% QoQ in Q3) while transaction volumes fell ~30%, and HDB resale may stabilize after three straight quarters of decline. Markets & Rates (US): US jobless claims stayed near 57-year lows, supporting labor-market stability even as bond yields remain volatile ahead of key jobs data. AI/Tech Demand: Micron flagged tight RAM supply into 2027-28 as AI-driven demand outpaces production ramp. Food & Consumer Trends: China’s instant noodles are shifting from price competition to premium, healthier products as leading players improve profitability despite softer volumes.

Microsoft Partner Push: Maven Collective launched its FY27 Microsoft Partner Global Partnership Survey, building on a 185,000-data-point benchmark showing most partners are active on marketplaces and hold solution designations. ASEAN Manufacturing: S&P Global said ASEAN factory conditions kept improving for 15 straight months, though September growth cooled amid West Asia tensions and higher oil prices. Housing Risk Watch: Australia’s housing market faces a “perfect storm” of falling valuations, weaker development and private-credit exposure, with higher funding costs threatening new builds. India Payments: Apple Pay launched in India with a narrow credit-card start via Axis Bank, aiming to win card users in a UPI-first world. Crypto Outlook: Citi lifted its BTC target to $113,000, citing ETF inflows and macro/regulatory catalysts. EU Trade & Carbon: Zhejiang export firms are accelerating low-carbon footprint accounting as CBAM reshapes market access. Market Forecasts (Tech & Networks): New reports project steady growth across content management, carrier Ethernet/routing, data network services, cloud communications, and data management tech through 2030.

US Macro Update: The U.S. economy’s Q2 growth was revised up to 2.2% as consumer spending and business investment stayed resilient, keeping inflation and bond-yield expectations in focus for Fed timing. UK Rates & Credit: EY forecasts UK bank lending growth will stall, sliding to a three-year low in 2027 as households and firms get more cautious amid geopolitical and energy-driven uncertainty. Asia Manufacturing: South Korea’s factory activity accelerated in September, with exports surging on chips and autos, while Japan’s manufacturing growth cooled to a six-month low but stayed in expansion. NHS AI Backlash: UK pressure is mounting to end a £330m NHS contract with Palantir over ethics and trust concerns, with protests planned. Regulation Watch: The CFTC sent new prediction-market rules to the White House to clarify event contracts as swaps and limit casino-style products. Markets & Tech: Oracle shares slid after cloud results missed expectations; Micron’s AI-driven outlook is drawing attention. Energy & Housing: UK vehicle production rose in August, but EU trade rules and tariffs risk hitting battery and PHEV competitiveness; housing affordability pressures persist in multiple markets. Local Growth & Food: Hope & Main expanded its Providence food incubator with West End Kitchens; pop-up markets and farmers’ markets keep boosting small vendors. Industry Forecasts: New reports point to continued growth in polyethylene packaging, monomaterial PE, plastic compounding extruders, and satellite mega-constellations.

Housing Finance Boost: Malaysia’s LPPSA raises the maximum civil-servant housing financing ceiling to RM1m, aiming to lift homeownership and clear completed units by boosting purchasing power. Energy Access Coordination: Nigeria’s off-grid stakeholders push for tighter agency coordination to cut duplication and accelerate investment in off-grid electricity. Air Travel Demand: IATA reports global passenger demand down 0.8% in August, with Middle East disruptions weighing on carriers even as demand outside the region holds up better. AI & Markets Mood: A White House AI summit keeps oversight largely industry-led while IPO delays (including Oura) underline risk appetite concerns. California Growth vs Jobs: UCLA says California’s economy is growing faster than the US, but an “employment recession” persists with weak labor-market breadth. India Flows: FIIs sell heavily in Indian equities while DIIs step in, keeping net buying positive for the session. Tech/Industrial Forecasts: New market outlooks highlight growth across RF repeater systems, controlled-release fertilizers, analytics, and wide-bandgap power semiconductors. Corporate Finance: Power Solutions International secures a $220m committed revolving credit facility to fund continued growth. London Housing Shift: London’s leasehold market struggles as developers pivot toward build-to-rent, co-living, and student housing.